Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
3.75¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.75%
$3.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and follow standard election market mechanics. Resolution relies on three specific major news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all agreeing on the winner, with an explicit fallback to official election certification if consensus is not reached. The timeline provides a generous buffer through July 31, 2027, well after California's standard post-election certification period. There is minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the race. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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