Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines clear and objective criteria for resolution, triggering as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with a fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls do not occur. A generous cutoff date of July 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other only if the results remain unconfirmed. There is minimal room for subjective interpretation or timing conflicts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Antonio Villaraigosa will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Antonio Villaraigosa wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three outlets do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date scheduled for the California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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