Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish how the outcome is determined, relying on unanimous race calls from three designated news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or, if they disagree, official state certification. A generous backstop date of July 31, 2027 provides sufficient time for official certification before resolving to "Other" in the unlikely event of an unresolved outcome. The criteria provide objective benchmarks with minimal ambiguity or discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Katie Porter will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Katie Porter wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 California gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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