Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for determining the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial race. Resolution is anchored to three named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race for the same candidate, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if all three do not agree. A long resolution deadline extending to July 31, 2027, leaves ample time for vote counting, legal challenges, and formal certification to finish before any contingency clause is triggered.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alex Padilla wins the California gubernatorial election scheduled for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alex Padilla wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 California gubernatorial election
- Resolution confirmation deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results are unconfirmed
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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