Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on consensus among three specific major news outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. There is an extended deadline of July 31, 2027, resolving to Other only if results remain unconfirmed by that time, leaving little room for surprise or discretionary interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rick Caruso will win the California gubernatorial election scheduled for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rick Caruso wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three media sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the outcome is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — Date of the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — If results are not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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