Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution relies directly on official information from France Football, the authoritative organizer of the award. The condition is binary and straightforward, depending purely on whether Pau Cubarsi is named the winner of the 2026 award. A clear cutoff deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is established in case the ceremony is delayed or cancelled, resolving to Other if no winner is declared. There are no ambiguous clauses, subjective criteria, or complex tie-breakers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spanish footballer Pau Cubarsi will be awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pau Cubarsi is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another player wins the award. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this cutoff.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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