Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.35¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$3.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has clear resolution conditions tied directly to an official announcement from France Football, the governing publication for the Ballon d'Or. A definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2026, is established, with an explicit fallback to Other if no ceremony or winner announcement takes place before the deadline. Because the event has a single official awarding body and the rules explicitly designate that official site as the resolution source, there is minimal room for interpretive dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rodri will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. If no award winner is declared before the final cutoff deadline, the market resolves to a separate fallback outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rodri is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The market resolves to No if someone other than Rodri is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary deciding source.
Key dates
- Winner declaration cutoff: — A winner must be declared by this time, otherwise the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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