Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
3.05¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward resolution criteria tied directly to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or as announced by the official awarding body, France Football. A clear cutoff date of December 31, 2026, is established in case the ceremony or announcement does not take place within the calendar year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lionel Messi will be awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or. It features a specific resolution fallback to "Other" if no winner is announced by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Lionel Messi wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves No if another individual wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by official information published by France Football.
Key dates
- Winner declaration deadline: — If no winner is declared by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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