Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$506.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has a straightforward resolution mechanism tied to the official winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The resolution source is explicitly designated as the official France Football website, leaving little room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion. There is also a clear long-stop expiration date of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET in the event the award is not presented or announced by year-end.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lautaro Martínez will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or. It features a specific fallback resolution to "Other" if no award recipient is announced by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lautaro Martínez is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The market resolves to No if someone else wins the award. The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football is the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Winner declaration deadline: — The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
France Football
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