Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$457K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has straightforward resolution terms tied to a well-known annual award. Resolution relies directly on official announcements from France Football, the governing entity that presents the Ballon d'Or. A clear fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, is established in case the ceremony or announcement does not occur within the calendar year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether professional football player Luis Díaz will be named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. It features a specific deadline resolving to Other if no winner is announced by the close of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Luis Díaz is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if a different candidate is declared the winner. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from France Football.
Key dates
- Winner declaration cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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