Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$724.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the target award and winner, relying directly on the official award organizer, France Football, as the primary source. The outcome depends entirely on official announcement records with no interpretation required. A concrete deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET provides a clear cutoff if no winner is announced within the expected calendar year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bruno Fernandes wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. It features a fallback resolution to Other if no award winner is declared before the final deadline of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bruno Fernandes is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The market resolves to No if a different individual is declared the winner. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this time.
Resolution source
France Football
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