Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$2.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly identify the event and rely on France Football, the official organizer of the Ballon d'Or, as the primary resolution source. An unambiguous fallback date of December 31, 2026, ensures a defined outcome if the award ceremony is delayed or cancelled. Overall, resolution terms are direct with minimal room for discretionary interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michael Olise is named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. It includes a fallback resolution to Other if no recipient is officially declared before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michael Olise wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another individual is named the winner. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Winner declaration cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is announced by this time.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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