Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
69.6¢
+4.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.6%
$6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and point to the official organizing publication, France Football, as the primary source. The outcome is binary and straightforward based on whether Harry Kane wins the award. A clear backstop deadline of December 31, 2026, is provided, resolving to Other if no winner is announced by that time. Overall, the market mechanics align directly with the title question without ambiguous conditions or complex exceptions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether football player Harry Kane is officially awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Harry Kane is named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another player wins the award. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Winner announcement deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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