Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward resolution criteria tied directly to the official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner. The resolution source is explicitly designated as France Football, the official award organizer. There is a clear backstop deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET in the event the award is not presented, minimizing timing uncertainty and decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vinícius Júnior will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or award.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vinícius Júnior is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another individual wins the award. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from France Football.
Key dates
- Winner announcement deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this time.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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