Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
27.35¢
−1.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.35%
$4.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and straightforward resolution mechanics. It relies on the official announcement from the award organizer, France Football, to determine the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. There is an explicit deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolving to Other if no winner is announced by that time. A reader looking only at the question is unlikely to encounter unexpected edge cases or discretionary interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lamine Yamal will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. It includes a specific fallback resolution to Other if no winner is announced by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lamine Yamal is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if a different individual wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to Other if no winner for the 2026 Ballon d'Or is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. France Football is the deciding source for official information.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET to declare a winner before resolving to Other
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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