Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules for this market are straightforward and closely match the plain reading of the question. Resolution depends on the official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner directly from the award organizer, France Football. A clear deadline of December 31, 2026, is established, with a standard fallback to Other if no winner is announced by that time. There are no complex contingencies, early resolution clauses, or ambiguous judging criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Erling Haaland will be awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Erling Haaland is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another individual is declared the winner. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from France Football.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this time.
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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