Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
3.9¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$4.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are straightforward and directly aligned with the question. The market relies on the official award organizer, France Football, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or discretion. There is a clearly defined longstop deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, with an explicit fallback resolving to Other if no winner is announced by that time. No complex exceptions, early resolution triggers, or ambiguous criteria are present.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kylian Mbappé will be awarded the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappé wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if a different individual is declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to Other if no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from France Football serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by this cutoff
Resolution source
France Football
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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