Will PSOE win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and specific criteria for determining the outcome, specifying how seats and votes in the Santa Cruz de Tenerife constituency are attributed to party lists.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and specific criteria for determining the outcome, specifying how seats and votes in the Santa Cruz de Tenerife constituency are attributed to party lists. While the initial resolution standard refers to a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's official election database as the definitive tiebreaker in case of ambiguity. Explicit tie-breaking procedures are defined—first by valid votes and then alphabetically by party name. There is also a one-year longstop date resolving to Other if results are not definitively known, but standard election certification timelines make this straightforward.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) wins the most seats in the Santa Cruz de Tenerife constituency in the 2026 Spanish general election, using specific tiebreakers if needed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies for Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Seats and votes are counted based on the official electoral list, disregarding candidate party membership, coalition agreements, endorsements, or later parliamentary group changes. If multiple parties tie on seats, the tie is broken first by the total valid votes received in the constituency, and then by alphabetical order of the party names. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases decided solely by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior.
Resolution source
Spanish Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·