Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how seats and votes in the Santa Cruz de Tenerife constituency will be evaluated, ranked, and tied-broken (first by valid votes, then alphabetically).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how seats and votes in the Santa Cruz de Tenerife constituency will be evaluated, ranked, and tied-broken (first by valid votes, then alphabetically). Attribution rules for specific electoral lists are thoroughly laid out, and official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serve as the definitive backstop resolution source. A generous one-year longstop date provides ample buffer for certification delays.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
60%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the People's Party (PP) will win the most seats in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to PP (or Yes) if the People's Party ranks first in seats won in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, with ties broken first by total valid votes in the constituency and then alphabetically by party name. Seats and votes are attributed by electoral list, including joint UPN–PP lists, while disregarding subsequent coalition agreements, endorsements, or affiliation changes. The market resolves to another party (or No) if another party finishes highest under these ranking rules. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior used in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Spanish Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·