Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying model, offering clear naming conventions (such as version 6.1 or higher containing 'Astra') alongside specific exclusions for other naming tiers, sub-models, and modalities.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying model, offering clear naming conventions (such as version 6.1 or higher containing 'Astra') alongside specific exclusions for other naming tiers, sub-models, and modalities. Public availability standards are well-defined, explicitly including open rolling waitlists while disqualifying closed betas, private access, or placeholder text. The resolution relies primarily on official announcements and releases from OpenAI, backed by credible reporting, creating minimal ambiguity or discretion for the decider.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
92%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI releases a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher to the general public by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI makes an OpenAI model designated version 6.1 or higher with Astra in its name or identifier available to the general public by November 30, 2026, ET. Public availability includes open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, and requires a clear public announcement or explicit labeling on OpenAI's official website. Closed betas, private access, labeling errors, placeholder text, GPT-6 Astra variants, tier-labeled models (such as Sol, Terra, or Luna lines), and task-specific lines (such as Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime) do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is official information from OpenAI, verified alongside credible reporting consensus.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·