Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules provide clear and detailed criteria for what counts as a qualifying release.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules provide clear and detailed criteria for what counts as a qualifying release. Specific naming conventions (version 6.1 or higher containing 'Astra') and clear exclusions for non-qualifying tiers, modalities, and earlier version snapshots are explicitly documented. The availability requirement specifies public access, including open betas or rolling waitlists while expressly excluding closed testing or website placeholder errors. Resolution relies primarily on official announcements and verification from OpenAI.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
99%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI general-purpose model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI publicly releases a GPT Astra model designated version 6.1 or higher by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI makes an Astra model designated version 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and December 31, 2026, ET. Qualifying models must include Astra in their name or model identifier and be accessible via open beta, open rolling waitlist, or general launch. GPT-6 Astra, closed betas, private access, labeling errors, tier-labeled models (such as Sol, Terra, Luna), and specific modality or task lines (such as Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime) do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is official information from OpenAI, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·