France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a valid declaration, tying resolution directly to Article 36 of the French Constitution and the Defence Code, with the official Journal Officiel (legifrance.gouv.fr) designated as the primary source. The rules explicitly distinguish and exclude other emergency legal frameworks such as standard states of emergency (état d'urgence), public health emergencies, Article 16 exceptional presidential powers, and military operations like Opération Sentinelle. The deadline is explicitly timed, and the only minor area of discretion is a provision allowing a renamed legal equivalent or fallback to credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether France puts into effect a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) by October 31, 2026. It specifically requires a constitutional state of siege rather than a standard state of emergency or other exceptional powers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code enters into effect anywhere in the French Republic by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If the legal name changes but retains the same essential powers, it still qualifies. The market resolves to No if no such decree takes effect by the deadline. Standard states of emergency, public health emergencies, Article 16 exceptional powers, military deployments without a decree, and informal references to martial law do not count. Resolution is decided using the Journal Officiel de la République française, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if a decree takes effect by 11:59 PM ET on this date; otherwise No.
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.