France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 2% · first close Nov 16, 2026 · $341.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether France enacts a legally binding decree establishing a state of siege (état de siège) across any French territory by various target dates in 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates. Because each market covers the period from creation up to its specific deadline, an earlier qualifying declaration means multiple markets can resolve Yes, while a declaration occurring later would resolve only subsequent deadlines to Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code takes effect by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Qualifying decrees apply to any part of France, including overseas territories. Standard states of emergency, public health emergencies, Article 16 exceptional powers, or military domestic security deployments do not qualify without a formal state of siege decree.
Key dates
- First deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- Second deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), with a consensus of credible reporting also usable.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| November 15 | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| October 31 | — | — | Low | Med | Resolved |