Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
Current price
23¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23%
$9.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution. The target price of $147.27 is explicitly stated, along with exact operational definitions for what constitutes the active front-month CME Crude Oil contract, including rollover mechanics. The resolution source is a specific, official URL from CME Group, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion. The market resolves immediately once a qualifying daily high is published, or at the end of the specified period with a clear 14-day timeout fallback.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether CME Crude Oil (CL) front-month futures reach a new all-time high above $147.27 on or before March 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official daily high price published by CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 on any trading day on or before the final trading day of the period. The market resolves to No if that price threshold is not reached once finalized data for the final trading day is published. Active month refers to the nearest listed contract month until two business days prior to spot month expiration. Resolution is decided by CME Group published data. If finalized data is not published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days of the period's end, resolution relies on data published across all CME Group channels up to that point.
Key dates
- End date: — Final target date by which Crude Oil futures must exceed $147.27.
Resolution source
CME Group website
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