Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Current price
10.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the benchmark, contract, and threshold required for resolution. Resolution relies on official CME Group daily high prices for front-month Light Sweet Crude Oil futures, with explicit instructions for contract roll dates and early resolution if the price exceeds $147.27 before the end of the year. The primary source is a named official exchange with standard published data, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether CME Crude Oil (CL) front-month futures reach a new all-time high price above $147.27 by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official daily high price published by CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures exceeds $147.27 on any trading day by the final trading day on or before December 31. The active month is the nearest listed contract month and rolls to the next listed contract two business days before spot month expiration. The market resolves to No if finalized data for the final trading day is published and the daily high never exceeded $147.27. Resolution is determined by CME Group daily high prices. If finalized data for the final trading day is not published on the CME website within 14 calendar days (ET), data from all CME Group channels up to that point will be used.
Key dates
- End date: — Final target date for the crude oil price threshold to be met.
Resolution source
CME Group website
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