Will Aleš Vrhovec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Aleš Vrhovec becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana from the scheduled 2026 election, accounting for both first-round and runoff scenarios.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether Aleš Vrhovec becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana from the scheduled 2026 election, accounting for both first-round and runoff scenarios. The rules establish a definitive fallback to the official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission and published by the State Election Commission if credible reporting consensus is unclear. Interim appointments are explicitly excluded, and a standard longstop date of May 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if results are undetermined.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Aleš Vrhovec wins the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aleš Vrhovec becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of the 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. The market resolves No if another candidate becomes the next mayor. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and published by the State Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and the State Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·