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PoliticsCloses · in 2 days$91.1K volumePart of: Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner →

Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market defines clear conditions tied to the outcome of the scheduled November 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including provisions for a runoff and a long-stop deadline of May 31, 2027.

Read the full assessment

The market defines clear conditions tied to the outcome of the scheduled November 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including provisions for a runoff and a long-stop deadline of May 31, 2027. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit recourse to the official Municipal Election Commission and State Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. Temporary or interim appointments are explicitly excluded.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

71%

chance

▲ +9 pts · 24h

Yes71¢
No29¢
Zoran Janković · Yes · 1MO 71.0 H 75.5 L 54.0 C 71.0±0.0 (+0.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +12 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 13:25 UTC

The market price rose from 56% to 68% as related candidate Luka Mesec moved down, pointing to correlated repricing across the mayoral race outcomes as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Luka Mesec (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Resolution rules

The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).

Market explained

This market measures whether Zoran Janković will win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Zoran Janković wins the election and becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next mayor. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and published by the State Election Commission (DVK).

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission (DVK)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·