Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Current price
84.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 84.5%
$56.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how seats are attributed to political parties, including specific guidance on regional branches like PSC and coalition candidates. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a named official fallback to the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's election portal. Detailed tie-breaking procedures using popular vote and alphabetical order are explicitly laid out, along with a definitive timeout date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election, counted according to the attribution rules below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received nationwide by each party, including votes attributed to its regional designations, with higher vote totals ranking higher. Votes attributed to PSC will count toward PSOE. Votes cast for a joint coalition list will not count toward an individual constituent party for this tie-break, even where elected candidates from that list count toward the party’s seat total. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the People's Party (PP) will win the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 2026 Spanish general election, applying specific seat-attribution and tie-breaking rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if PP wins the highest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 2026 Spanish general election, or wins the tie-breaker based on nationwide popular votes or alphabetical order. For coalitions, only seats won by candidates who were members of the party on election day count. The market resolves to No if another party wins the most seats. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior resolving any ambiguity.
Key dates
- election date: — Legislative elections are scheduled to take place.
- resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity
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