Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Current price
14.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$61.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are counted, providing clear guidance on regional branches like PSC and explicit criteria for handling coalitions and candidate party memberships. There is a precise tie-breaking procedure starting with nationwide popular votes (excluding joint coalition votes) down to alphabetical order. Although the rules first reference a consensus of credible reporting, they designate the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's official election portal as the definitive tiebreaker in case of ambiguity. The timeout allows a full year after the election date before resolving to Other, minimizing timing disruptions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election, counted according to the attribution rules below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received nationwide by each party, including votes attributed to its regional designations, with higher vote totals ranking higher. Votes attributed to PSC will count toward PSOE. Votes cast for a joint coalition list will not count toward an individual constituent party for this tie-break, even where elected candidates from that list count toward the party’s seat total. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will win the greatest number of seats in the Spanish Congress of Deputies in the 2026 general election, including seats won under regional designations like PSC.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or the listed party) if PSOE finishes in the highest ranking position by winning the most seats in the election. Seats and nationwide votes from regional designations such as PSC count toward PSOE, but joint coalition votes do not count for tie-breaking, and coalition seats count only for candidates who were party members on election day. The market resolves to No (or another party) if another political party finishes in first place based on total seats, broken first by nationwide popular vote totals, then alphabetically. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as the deciding source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date legislative elections are scheduled to take place
- Definitive results deadline: — Results must be known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other
Resolution source
Spanish Ministry of the Interior
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