Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?
Last captured price
80.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 80.5%
$38.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define that resolution hinges on which listed candidate wins the most valid votes in the second round of the presidential election specifically from the state of Pará. The resolution mechanism references official Brazilian government data via the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) as the definitive backup in case of reporting discrepancies. An explicit alphabetical tie-breaker and a distant backstop date resolving to Other provide clear resolution mechanics without unusual edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lula will win the most valid votes in the state of Pará during the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Resolution features an alphabetical tie-breaker rule if candidates receive an equal number of votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Lula wins the most valid votes in Pará in the second round of the presidential election, or wins an alphabetical tie-breaker if tied. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins the most valid votes or wins the tie-breaker. The market resolves to Other if the definitive result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Pará, Brazil.
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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