Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?
Current price
20¢
−5.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20%
$34.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the most valid votes in Pará during the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) serving as the authoritative backup if ambiguity arises. An artificial tie-breaker based on alphabetical order is included, and an extended longstop deadline of June 30, 2027, prevents premature timeouts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes in the state of Pará during the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. It features an alphabetical tiebreaker based on candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of the presidential election from Pará. If two or more candidates tie, the tie is broken by the alphabetical order of their full names as listed in the market, resolving to whoever occupies the top position. If the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) official results decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the election in Pará, Brazil.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or solely the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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