63.5¢
−3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63.5%
$45.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
This market resolves clearly based on which listed candidate secures the most valid votes in the second round of the 2026 presidential election within the state of Amazonas. The resolution basis relies on a consensus of reporting with an explicit, named official fallback: the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official data. An artificial alphabetical tie-breaker exists if valid vote totals are identical, and an extended longstop date of June 30, 2027 resolves to 'Other' if definitive outcomes remain unknown, but overall operational mechanics are straightforward and unambiguous.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The market rose from 59% to 69% alongside a concurrent move in related election markets, where Flavio Bolsonaro moved down, with no state-specific news for Amazonas identified.
AI-generated · 15 Oct 2026, 16:50 UTC
The price increased from 0.505 to 0.665, but available news headlines and market data show no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 14 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will receive the most valid votes in Amazonas during the second round of Brazil's presidential election. An unusual feature is an alphabetical tiebreaker based on candidates' listed full names if valid vote totals are tied.
The market resolves to Yes (or the listed candidate Lula) if Lula wins the most valid votes in Amazonas in the second round of the presidential election, after applying an alphabetical tiebreaker by listed full name if necessary. The market resolves to No (or another candidate) if another candidate wins the most valid votes under the same ranking rules. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) serving as the definitive source if ambiguity arises.
Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.