Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?
Current price
37.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.5%
$54.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines resolution based on the candidate receiving the most valid votes in Amazonas during the second round of the presidential election. It designates an authoritative official fallback, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), if reporting is ambiguous. Participants should note the tie-breaking clause, which relies on the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names in the market rather than official electoral tie-break procedures, as well as a long expiration cutoff on June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if results remain unconfirmed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes in the state of Amazonas during the second round of Brazil's presidential election. An unusual feature is that ties in vote counts are broken by the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on which candidate receives the most valid votes in Amazonas. Candidates are ranked by valid votes won, with any ties broken by the alphabetical order of their listed full names. If the result of the election is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Amazonas.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET, after which the market resolves to Other if results are unknown.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) of the Brazilian government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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