Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
- Not captured
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that only physical presence on Venezuelan land counts, explicitly excluding airspace or maritime waters. However, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting without designating a specific authoritative registry or news source, leaving room for interpretation if reports of her physical presence are disputed, covert, or unconfirmed. Additionally, the question refers broadly to entering Venezuela by October 31 without stating a year, while the detailed rules set the explicit deadline as October 31, 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by October 31, 2026. Resolution depends specifically on physical entry into terrestrial territory, explicitly excluding entry into airspace or maritime territory.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A visit is strictly defined as physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela; entering Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory does not count toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela within that timeframe. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The final cutoff time for María Corina Machado to enter Venezuela.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.