Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?
Current price
6.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$241.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise and objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is tied entirely to 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a clearly stated timezone and timeframe (ET). It specifies immediate early resolution to Yes if the price threshold of $70,000 or lower is touched, and otherwise resolves to No at the end of the month. A single direct URL and chart setting are specified, leaving no room for decider discretion or competing data sources.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to $70,000 or lower during October. It resolves solely on 1-minute candle Low prices from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final Low price equal to or lower than $70,000 between October 1 at 00:00 AM ET and October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified period. Resolution is determined solely using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle price data, excluding prices from any other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.
Key dates
- Measurement period start: — 00:00 AM ET
- Measurement period end: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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