PolymarketCloses · in 12 daysPart of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?

Last captured price

99.95¢

±0¢ · 24h

Implied probability 99.95%
$294.4K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 48.5–99.95¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is tied entirely to a single, specific metric: whether any 1-minute candle Low price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair hits $80,000 or lower during October in the Eastern Time zone. An explicit URL, timeframe, and resolution trigger are defined, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or misinterpretation.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Low — thin book

Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $143.4K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price

Not enough price history for this range yet.

40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 15

Why it moved

Up 34 points · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

Coin price

The contract rose from 56% to 100%. Bitcoin fell 0.87% on Binance in the hour of the move and was within 2.82% of the threshold, making a dip to $80,000 more likely. This drop in the underlying price is the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 12:00 UTC, 50% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.9% in the move hour, −1.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 17 days after the move hour.
  • 9 related outcomes moved in the same window, 6 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (up), ↑ 87,500 (up), ↓ 77,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 04:52 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or falls below $80,000 during October. It resolves based exclusively on Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges or trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT on Binance shows a final Low price equal to or lower than $80,000 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined solely by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data, excluding prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.

Key dates

  • Start of measurement period: — 00:00 AM ET on the first day of October
  • End of measurement period: — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Community forecast

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