Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?
Current price
0.45¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$559.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and deterministic resolution criteria. It relies on a specific single data source (the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high) and explicitly defines the exact timeframe (from 00:00 AM ET on October 1 to 11:59 PM ET on October 31). It triggers immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle hits or exceeds $105,000, and resolves to No otherwise. There is no decider discretion or reliance on subjective consensus, though participants should be aware that price spikes on other exchanges will not count if they do not occur on Binance's BTC/USDT pair.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $105,000 during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during October has a final High price equal to or greater than $105,000 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $105,000 during this timeframe. Resolution is determined solely using Binance 1-minute candle High price data for the BTC/USDT trading pair.
Key dates
- Observation window start: — First day of October at 00:00 AM ET
- Observation window end: — Last day of October at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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