Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?
Current price
0.1¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$624.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the target price, the precise timezone and time window, and the exact resolution metric down to the 1-minute candle High price. A single direct source URL and trading pair (Binance BTC/USDT) are designated with no discretion allowed for alternative feeds or exchanges. The early resolution condition for hitting the target is clearly stated, leaving minimal room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $150,000 on Binance during October. It resolves exclusively using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final High price equal to or greater than $150,000 between October 1 at 00:00 AM ET and October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches that price threshold during the specified period. Resolution is determined solely by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart; price data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Measurement period start: — 00:00 AM ET
- Measurement period end: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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