Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Current price
5.6¢
−5.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.6%
$4.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if a specific individual will be the next Minister of Finance, but the rules govern a multi-candidate selection resolving to whichever person first takes office in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. Interim or caretaker roles are excluded, and approval must come via a Knesset confidence or appointment vote. Watch out for complex portfolio split and successor rules: if responsibilities are divided across multiple ministries, resolution falls to an alphabetical tiebreaker based on full names. Additionally, determining what constitutes primary versus secondary responsibilities relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than purely statutory definitions. A strict expiration deadline of February 28, 2027 triggers resolution to a specific fallback outcome if government formation stalls.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yaron Zelekha will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yaron Zelekha is the first person to assume office as Minister of Finance (or its confirmed primary successor position) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after the first qualifying minister are ignored. The market resolves to No if a different individual assumes the office first under these conditions. The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying individual assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If responsibilities are split across multiple successor positions, the person whose full name comes first alphabetically resolves the market. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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