Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
1 live outcome · highest priced: No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 41% (+8 pts in 24h) · first close Mar 1, 2027 · $62.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will become the next Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. Markets represent candidate outcomes as well as a fallback outcome if no qualifying appointment happens before the specified deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of candidate-specific markets and a fallback outcome. Because the rules state that the event resolves to the single individual who first assumes the office (or to the fallback option if no appointment occurs), at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the named individual is the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Defense (or an approved successor position) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. The ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial assumption of office do not affect resolution. If multiple successor positions share the primary portfolio, resolution defaults to the individual whose full name is first alphabetically. If no qualifying minister takes office by the deadline, the fallback outcome resolves Yes.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 41% | ▲ 8 | Med | Low | |
| Naftali Bennett | 19% | ▲ 3 | Med | Med | |
| Israel Katz | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Gadi Eizenkot | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Benny Gantz | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Avigdor Lieberman | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Yair Golan | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Bezalel Smotrich | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ofer Winter | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Eli Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Matan Kahana | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Elazar Stern | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Moshe Feiglin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yair Lapid | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yoram Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Amir Ohana | — | — | Not rated | — |