Will Rosen Plevneliev win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$541.1 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has clear criteria focused on who receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. While it initially references a consensus of credible reporting, it specifies the Central Election Commission (CEC) as the definitive official fallback if ambiguity arises. Participants should note the arbitrary alphabetical tie-breaker rule based on full names, as well as the long cutoff date of June 30, 2027, which resolves the market to 'Other' if definitive official results are not known by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rosen Plevneliev will win the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rosen Plevneliev receives the most valid votes in the first round of the election, or wins via alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for first. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with more valid votes or wins the alphabetical tiebreaker. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the first round of the presidential election.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) of Bulgaria
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