Will Delyan Peevski win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$554.2 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official first-round results published by Bulgaria's Central Election Commission (CEC), backed by credible reporting consensus. The criteria are straightforward: whether the named candidate finishes first in valid votes in the initial round. The only notable operational rule is an alphabetical tie-breaker mechanism if valid votes are tied, along with an extended longstop resolution deadline of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if official results remain unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Delyan Peevski will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An unusual tie-breaking rule applies alphabetical ordering of full names if candidates tie for first place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Delyan Peevski wins the most valid votes in the first round of the election, or wins an alphabetical tie-breaker if candidates tie for the most valid votes. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins the most valid votes. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Definitive result deadline: — Latest date/time (11:59 PM ET) for results before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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