Will Atanas Atanasov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.4¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$631.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the most valid votes in the first round of the October 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. Official figures from the Central Election Commission serve as the definitive fallback if reporting is unclear. Participants should be aware of two specific mechanics: if there is an exact tie in valid votes, it is broken strictly by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names, and if election results remain unconfirmed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Atanas Atanasov will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An unusual tie-breaking rule resolves ties by the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Atanas Atanasov receives the most valid votes in the first round of the election, or if he wins a tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of candidates' listed full names. The market resolves to No if another candidate achieves the highest ranking under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The date the presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria as the authoritative fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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