Will Krum Zarkov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Last captured price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$606.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official first-round results published by Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if media consensus is unclear. The primary rule exception to note is an artificial tie-breaker: in the rare event of an exact tie in vote totals, resolution defaults to the candidate whose full name appears earliest in alphabetical order. Additionally, if official results remain unresolved past the final deadline of June 30, 2027, the market defaults to resolving as Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Krum Zarkov will secure the highest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with ties broken by alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Krum Zarkov wins the most valid votes in the first round of the presidential election, after applying an alphabetical tie-breaker if necessary. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the highest ranking. The market resolves to Other if the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Scheduled date for the first round of the presidential election.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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