Will Yanaki Stoilov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$575.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official first-round results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election from the Central Election Commission (CEC), though credible reporting consensus is also referenced. The criteria are straightforward: the listed candidate with the most valid votes wins. The primary unusual mechanic to be aware of is an alphabetical tie-breaker by listed full name if two candidates finish tied in valid votes, as well as a fallback resolving to Other if definitive results are not known by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yanaki Stoilov will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An alphabetical tie-breaker applies if candidates tie for first place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yanaki Stoilov receives the most valid votes in the first round of the election, including via an alphabetical tie-breaker based on full name if candidates are tied. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the most valid votes after applying the ranking rules. The market resolves to Other if the definitive result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) serving as the deciding source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election scheduled date: — Scheduled date for the Bulgarian presidential election first round.
- Resolution deadline: — If definitive results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC)
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