Will Natalia Kiselova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$485.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official first-round results published by Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises, supported by a consensus of credible reporting. The rules clearly define how candidates are ranked by valid votes and provide a definitive long-stop date well after the scheduled election. Participants should note the unusual tie-breaking rule, which resolves ties between candidates based on alphabetical order of their full names as listed in the market rather than an official recount or election commission determination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Natalia Kiselova will win the most valid votes in the first round of Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election. It features an alphabetical tiebreaker rule and a resolution fallback if results are delayed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Natalia Kiselova receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election, or wins via the alphabetical tiebreaker. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate finishes first. If candidates tie for first place, the tie is broken alphabetically by their listed full names. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the presidential election in Bulgaria.
- Resolution deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET is the deadline for results to be definitively known.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC)
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