Will Blagomir Kotsev win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$558.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines a straightforward resolution mechanism based on the first-round vote counts in the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. It specifically names the Central Election Commission (cik.bg) as the definitive official authority if reporting consensus is unclear. An explicit tie-breaking rule using alphabetical order of listed names is included, and there is a generous resolution longstop date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are not definitively established.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Blagomir Kotsev will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An unusual tie-breaking rule resolves ties by the alphabetical order of candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Blagomir Kotsev wins the most valid votes in the first round, including via an alphabetical tie-breaker of listed full names if tied for the top position. The market resolves No if another candidate finishes with the most votes after ranking and tie-breakers. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — First round of the Bulgarian presidential election
- Definitive result deadline: — Resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
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