Will Vassil Terziev win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$575.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the condition: the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. Official verification is grounded in the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria, with a clear fallback for ties based on alphabetical order. There is an ample deadline of June 30, 2027, to account for standard certification timelines. Overall, the market mechanics are straightforward with minimal risk of unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vassil Terziev will win the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An unusual aspect is that any ties in vote counts are broken strictly by the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vassil Terziev occupies the highest finishing position based on valid votes won in the first round of the election, including via an alphabetical tiebreaker if votes are tied. It resolves No if another candidate finishes with the most votes after ranking and tiebreaking. It resolves to Other if the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) of the Bulgarian government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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