Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
Implied probability 0.05%
$559.3 total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on which candidate wins the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with the Central Election Commission (CEC) serving as the official fallback source. However, resolution primarily references a consensus of credible reporting before falling back to official results, which introduces some decider discretion. Additionally, there is an arbitrary tie-breaking clause based on the alphabetical order of candidates' full names as listed in the market, along with a timeout clause that resolves the market to 'Other' if definitive results are not known by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rosen Zhelyazkov receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with exact vote ties broken strictly by alphabetical order of candidates' full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rosen Zhelyazkov wins the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election, or wins any tiebreaker based on alphabetical order of full names. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate receives the most valid votes or wins the alphabetical tiebreaker. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Bulgarian presidential election.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission (CEC)
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