Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
Implied probability 0.05%
$311.3 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves strictly based on which candidate receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. While it mentions consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the official Central Election Commission as the definitive source in case of any ambiguity. A long backstop date of June 30, 2027 provides ample time for certification. One specific clause to note is that an exact tie in vote totals would be broken by alphabetical order of candidate names rather than an unresolved split or runoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kostadin Kostadinov will win the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. An unusual feature is that ties in valid votes are broken using the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or the specific candidate) if Kostadin Kostadinov receives the most valid votes in the first round, or wins the tie-breaker. Ties between candidates are broken based on the alphabetical order of their listed full names. The market resolves to No (or another candidate) if another candidate secures the most valid votes. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — First round of the presidential election scheduled in Bulgaria.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not definitively known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) as the fallback.
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